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[ 52.81851726474853, 47.18148273525147 ], "age": [ 12.523, 30.704, 33.504, 23.269 ], "education": [ 33.227, 41.583, 25.191 ], "income": [ 13.4977, 21.9424, 39.2311, 25.3287 ], "region": [ 15.909677928955354, 27.58265204847425, 42.023618601558496, 14.484051421011902 ], "labour": [ 36.77, 24.21, 3.6, 35.42 ], "tse_metadata": { "source_name": "TSE Eleitorado Atual - Perfil do eleitorado por seção eleitoral", "source_url": "https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/perfil_eleitorado/perfil_eleitorado_ATUAL.zip", "portal_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/dataset/eleitorado-atual", "dt_geracao": "01/07/2026", "hh_geracao": "12:44:02", "ano_eleicao": "9999", "rows_processed": "11126427", "total_eleitores_all_ufs_incl_exterior": "158765543", "total_eleitores_brasil_sem_exterior": "157846602", "zip_sha256": "d97dffffd7c0d8c396bfab3e3e01cef2a97928c905eecd8b4fdf17ec1fdd13d5", "notes": "Comparações nacionais excluem SG_UF=ZZ (exterior). Sexo binário usa denominador Homem/Mulher. Idade usa eleitorado 16+ e exclui 15 anos/faixa inválida. Totais brutos preservam Não informado." } } }, "reweighting": { "july": { "first": { "sex": { "reproduced": [ 42.379, 33.138, 5.469, 5.329, 3.467, 1.536, 0.465, 0.0, 6.144, 2.071 ], "direct": [ 42.36, 33.157, 5.47, 5.338, 3.469, 1.534, 0.467, 0.0, 6.137, 2.068 ], "anchored": [ 41.98, 33.019, 6.002, 5.009, 3.002, 1.998, 1.002, 0.0, 5.993, 1.996 ], "gap": 8.962 }, "age": { "reproduced": [ 42.574, 33.415, 5.747, 4.942, 3.649, 1.698, 0.643, 0.0, 5.75, 1.582 ], "direct": [ 42.427, 33.458, 5.711, 5.058, 3.651, 1.709, 0.645, 0.0, 5.772, 1.57 ], "anchored": [ 41.853, 33.043, 5.963, 5.115, 3.002, 2.011, 1.002, 0.0, 6.022, 1.988 ], "gap": 8.81 }, "education": { "reproduced": [ 42.683, 33.273, 5.494, 4.814, 3.22, 1.881, 0.774, 0.0, 5.85, 2.012 ], "direct": [ 42.266, 33.329, 5.538, 4.947, 3.364, 1.931, 0.751, 0.0, 5.861, 2.012 ], "anchored": [ 41.582, 33.057, 6.044, 5.134, 3.144, 2.05, 0.978, 0.0, 6.011, 2.0 ], "gap": 8.526 }, "region": { "reproduced": [ 42.888, 33.044, 5.562, 5.13, 3.384, 1.833, 0.416, 0.0, 5.982, 1.761 ], "direct": [ 42.779, 33.145, 5.557, 5.14, 3.389, 1.834, 0.416, 0.0, 5.973, 1.768 ], "anchored": [ 41.891, 33.101, 5.994, 5.011, 3.005, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.991, 2.007 ], "gap": 8.79 }, "income": { "reproduced": [ 42.672, 33.252, 5.689, 4.972, 3.402, 1.57, 0.792, 0.0, 5.819, 1.832 ], "direct": [ 41.007, 34.148, 6.082, 5.315, 3.703, 1.766, 0.777, 0.0, 5.574, 1.629 ], "anchored": [ 40.335, 33.896, 6.393, 5.343, 3.3, 2.196, 0.985, 0.0, 5.755, 1.797 ], "gap": 6.439 }, "labour": { "reproduced": [ 42.649, 33.435, 5.479, 4.785, 3.173, 2.041, 0.429, 0.0, 6.163, 1.847 ], "direct": [ 43.443, 33.062, 5.422, 4.684, 3.216, 1.997, 0.371, 0.0, 6.03, 1.776 ], "anchored": [ 42.794, 32.626, 5.943, 4.898, 3.043, 1.957, 0.943, 0.0, 5.867, 1.929 ], "gap": 10.168 } }, "runoff": { "sex": { "reproduced": [ 47.89, 42.58, 8.53, 1.0 ], "direct": [ 47.866, 42.605, 8.528, 1.0 ], "anchored": [ 46.976, 43.025, 8.998, 1.0 ], "gap": 3.951 }, "age": { "reproduced": [ 47.285, 42.699, 8.743, 1.273 ], "direct": [ 47.143, 42.808, 8.795, 1.254 ], "anchored": [ 46.858, 43.109, 9.052, 0.981 ], "gap": 3.749 }, "education": { "reproduced": [ 47.611, 42.574, 8.812, 1.004 ], "direct": [ 47.183, 42.871, 8.943, 1.003 ], "anchored": [ 46.572, 43.297, 9.131, 1.0 ], "gap": 3.275 }, "region": { "reproduced": [ 47.745, 42.44, 8.501, 1.314 ], "direct": [ 47.633, 42.553, 8.502, 1.312 ], "anchored": [ 46.888, 43.113, 9.002, 0.998 ], "gap": 3.775 }, "income": { "reproduced": [ 47.87, 42.47, 8.8, 0.86 ], "direct": [ 46.353, 44.086, 8.899, 0.662 ], "anchored": [ 45.483, 44.616, 9.099, 0.802 ], "gap": 0.868, "rounding": { "draws": 10000, "p2_5": 0.768, "p97_5": 0.968, "median": 0.867 } }, "labour": { "reproduced": [ 47.255, 42.909, 8.603, 1.232 ], "direct": [ 47.933, 42.414, 8.505, 1.148 ], "anchored": [ 47.678, 42.504, 8.902, 0.916 ], "gap": 5.174 } } }, "august": { "first": { "sex": { "reproduced": [ 41.42, 36.52, 4.47, 3.82, 2.94, 3.65, 4.12, 3.06 ], "direct": [ 41.395, 36.549, 4.472, 3.831, 2.944, 3.641, 4.113, 3.056 ], "anchored": [ 40.975, 37.029, 5.002, 4.011, 3.004, 2.991, 3.993, 2.996 ], "gap": 3.946 }, "age": { "reproduced": [ 41.619, 36.997, 4.383, 3.593, 2.933, 3.566, 4.303, 2.606 ], "direct": [ 41.552, 36.983, 4.349, 3.688, 2.916, 3.607, 4.29, 2.614 ], "anchored": [ 40.934, 36.986, 4.966, 4.095, 2.983, 3.041, 3.987, 3.009 ], "gap": 3.948 }, "education": { "reproduced": [ 41.144, 36.97, 4.584, 3.8, 3.104, 3.871, 3.816, 2.71 ], "direct": [ 41.032, 36.867, 4.58, 3.935, 3.178, 3.922, 3.829, 2.656 ], "anchored": [ 40.888, 36.897, 4.997, 4.134, 3.073, 3.052, 4.013, 2.946 ], "gap": 3.991 }, "income": { "reproduced": [ 41.617, 37.031, 4.627, 3.851, 2.643, 3.658, 3.81, 2.763 ], "direct": [ 40.354, 38.306, 4.71, 4.11, 2.691, 3.415, 3.605, 2.808 ], "anchored": [ 39.737, 38.276, 5.083, 4.258, 3.048, 2.758, 3.795, 3.045 ], "gap": 1.461 }, "region": { "reproduced": [ 41.298, 36.872, 4.687, 3.706, 3.143, 3.744, 3.688, 2.861 ], "direct": [ 41.204, 36.957, 4.687, 3.702, 3.147, 3.743, 3.704, 2.856 ], "anchored": [ 40.905, 37.085, 4.999, 3.997, 3.004, 2.999, 4.016, 2.995 ], "gap": 3.82 }, "labour": { "reproduced": [ 41.332, 36.873, 4.628, 3.694, 2.749, 3.614, 4.121, 2.989 ], "direct": [ 41.826, 36.663, 4.668, 3.64, 2.539, 3.525, 4.096, 3.044 ], "anchored": [ 41.494, 36.79, 5.04, 3.946, 2.79, 2.911, 3.975, 3.055 ], "gap": 4.704 } }, "runoff": { "sex": { "reproduced": [ 45.727, 44.326, 7.903, 2.044 ], "direct": [ 45.697, 44.356, 7.907, 2.041 ], "anchored": [ 45.97, 45.03, 8.004, 1.996 ], "gap": 0.94 }, "age": { "reproduced": [ 45.76, 44.46, 7.72, 2.06 ], "direct": [ 45.727, 44.465, 7.757, 2.051 ], "anchored": [ 45.967, 45.005, 8.037, 1.991 ], "gap": 0.961 }, "education": { "reproduced": [ 45.711, 44.436, 7.712, 2.141 ], "direct": [ 45.658, 44.48, 7.771, 2.09 ], "anchored": [ 45.947, 45.043, 8.06, 1.95 ], "gap": 0.904 }, "income": { "reproduced": [ 45.618, 44.426, 7.917, 2.04 ], "direct": [ 44.361, 45.866, 7.986, 1.787 ], "anchored": [ 44.743, 46.44, 8.069, 1.747 ], "gap": -1.697, "rounding": { "draws": 10000, "p2_5": -1.781, "p97_5": -1.614, "median": -1.697 } }, "region": { "reproduced": [ 46.012, 44.411, 7.573, 2.004 ], "direct": [ 45.921, 44.492, 7.583, 2.004 ], "anchored": [ 45.909, 45.081, 8.011, 2.0 ], "gap": 0.828 }, "labour": { "reproduced": [ 45.626, 44.793, 7.608, 1.972 ], "direct": [ 46.024, 44.386, 7.567, 2.023 ], "anchored": [ 46.398, 44.593, 7.959, 2.05 ], "gap": 1.805 } } } }, "margin_leverage": { "wave": "august", "ballot": "runoff", "identity": "delta = ", "bound": "|delta| <= TVD(t, w) * amplitude(v)", "summary": { "published_gap": 1.0, "quota_free_swing_sum": -1.892, "quota_free_gap": -0.892, "quota_locked_swing_sum": -0.367, "mean_tvd_free_pct": 8.143, "mean_tvd_locked_pct": 1.172, "caveat": "A soma das correções de margem única é aproximada: as margens se correlacionam e a calibração oficial é conjunta. Serve como ordem de grandeza, não como reponderação multivariada." }, "note": "Amplitude e desvio-padrão medem a inclinação política da margem; a TVD mede o erro de calibração. O produto limita quanto a margem pode mover a vantagem. Margens travadas por cota têm TVD perto de zero e são inertes por construção.", "margins": [ { "dimension": "income", "label": "Renda", "quota_controlled": false, "benchmark": "PNAD", "gradient": [ 26.0, -6.0, -4.95, -6.931 ], "amplitude": 32.931, "weighted_sd": 13.112, "tvd_pct": 8.657, "swing": -2.697, "holder_bound": 2.851, "share_of_bound": 0.946 }, { "dimension": "labour", "label": "Ocupação", "quota_controlled": false, "benchmark": "PNAD", "gradient": [ -11.111, 2.97, 11.111, 13.0 ], "amplitude": 24.111, "weighted_sd": 10.919, "tvd_pct": 7.63, "swing": 0.805, "holder_bound": 1.84, "share_of_bound": 0.438 }, { "dimension": "region", "label": "Região", "quota_controlled": true, "benchmark": "TSE", "gradient": [ -4.0, 13.131, 5.0, -25.253 ], "amplitude": 38.384, "weighted_sd": 12.168, "tvd_pct": 0.508, "swing": -0.172, "holder_bound": 0.195, "share_of_bound": 0.884 }, { "dimension": "education", "label": "Escolaridade", "quota_controlled": true, "benchmark": "PNAD", "gradient": [ 4.04, -1.0, 1.0 ], "amplitude": 5.04, "weighted_sd": 2.212, "tvd_pct": 2.773, "swing": -0.096, "holder_bound": 0.14, "share_of_bound": 0.687 }, { "dimension": "sex", "label": "Sexo", "quota_controlled": true, "benchmark": "TSE", "gradient": [ 16.832, -16.0 ], "amplitude": 32.832, "weighted_sd": 16.386, "tvd_pct": 0.181, "swing": -0.06, "holder_bound": 0.06, "share_of_bound": 1.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "label": "Idade", "quota_controlled": true, "benchmark": "TSE", "gradient": [ 25.0, -12.0, -5.0, 15.0 ], "amplitude": 37.0, "weighted_sd": 13.379, "tvd_pct": 1.227, "swing": -0.039, "holder_bound": 0.454, "share_of_bound": 0.085 } ] }, "income_mechanics": { "labels": [ "Até 1 SM", "1-2 SM", "2-5 SM", "5+ SM" ], "n": 2002, "waves": { "july": { "published_gap": 4.0, "swing": -3.132, "reweighted_gap": 0.868, "bands": [ { "band": "Até 1 SM", "poll_pct": 23.0, "pnad_pct": 13.498, "error_pp": -9.502, "vote_gap": 34.0, "contribution": -3.231, "interviews_gap": 190 }, { "band": "1-2 SM", "poll_pct": 17.0, "pnad_pct": 21.942, "error_pp": 4.942, "vote_gap": 14.0, "contribution": 0.692, "interviews_gap": 99 }, { "band": "2-5 SM", "poll_pct": 40.0, "pnad_pct": 39.231, "error_pp": -0.769, "vote_gap": -6.0, "contribution": 0.046, "interviews_gap": 15 }, { "band": "5+ SM", "poll_pct": 20.0, "pnad_pct": 25.329, "error_pp": 5.329, "vote_gap": -12.0, "contribution": -0.639, "interviews_gap": 107 } ], "tipping_lambda": 1.2771, "tipping_bottom_band_pct": 10.865, "benchmark_ci_swing": { "replicates": 200, "p2_5": -3.299, "p97_5": -2.995 }, "step_not_ramp": { "bottom_band_gap": 34.0, "other_bands_mean_gap": -1.333, "other_bands_range": 26.0, "distance": 35.333 } }, "august": { "published_gap": 1.0, "swing": -2.697, "reweighted_gap": -1.697, "bands": [ { "band": "Até 1 SM", "poll_pct": 21.782, "pnad_pct": 13.498, "error_pp": -8.284, "vote_gap": 26.0, "contribution": -2.154, "interviews_gap": 166 }, { "band": "1-2 SM", "poll_pct": 17.822, "pnad_pct": 21.942, "error_pp": 4.121, "vote_gap": -6.0, "contribution": -0.247, "interviews_gap": 82 }, { "band": "2-5 SM", "poll_pct": 39.604, "pnad_pct": 39.231, "error_pp": -0.373, "vote_gap": -4.95, "contribution": 0.018, "interviews_gap": 7 }, { "band": "5+ SM", "poll_pct": 20.792, "pnad_pct": 25.329, "error_pp": 4.537, "vote_gap": -6.931, "contribution": -0.314, "interviews_gap": 91 } ], "tipping_lambda": 0.3708, "tipping_bottom_band_pct": 18.711, "benchmark_ci_swing": { "replicates": 200, "p2_5": -2.785, "p97_5": -2.626 }, "step_not_ramp": { "bottom_band_gap": 26.0, "other_bands_mean_gap": -5.96, "other_bands_range": 1.98, "distance": 31.96 } } } }, "segment_shift": { "first": [ { "dimension": "income", "category": "1 a 2 SM", "lula_july": 47.5, "lula_august": 37.4, "lula_delta": -10.1, "flavio_july": 30.3, "flavio_august": 44.4, "flavio_delta": 14.1, "gap_july": 17.2, "gap_august": -7.1 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Nordeste", "lula_july": 57.6, "lula_august": 48.0, "lula_delta": -9.6, "flavio_july": 24.2, "flavio_august": 34.0, "flavio_delta": 9.8, "gap_july": 33.3, "gap_august": 14.0 }, { "dimension": "education", "category": "Fundamental", "lula_july": 53.5, "lula_august": 43.6, "lula_delta": -10.0, "flavio_july": 29.3, "flavio_august": 38.6, "flavio_delta": 9.3, "gap_july": 24.2, "gap_august": 5.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "41 a 59", "lula_july": 41.0, "lula_august": 40.4, "lula_delta": -0.6, "flavio_july": 34.0, "flavio_august": 41.4, "flavio_delta": 7.4, "gap_july": 7.0, "gap_august": -1.0 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Católicos", "lula_july": 49.0, "lula_august": 45.5, "lula_delta": -3.5, "flavio_july": 27.0, "flavio_august": 33.7, "flavio_delta": 6.7, "gap_july": 22.0, "gap_august": 11.9 }, { "dimension": "sex", "category": "Homens", "lula_july": 36.6, "lula_august": 34.0, "lula_delta": -2.6, "flavio_july": 38.6, "flavio_august": 45.0, "flavio_delta": 6.4, "gap_july": -2.0, "gap_august": -11.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "25 a 40", "lula_july": 38.4, "lula_august": 33.3, "lula_delta": -5.1, "flavio_july": 37.4, "flavio_august": 43.4, "flavio_delta": 6.1, "gap_july": 1.0, "gap_august": -10.1 }, { "dimension": "education", "category": "Superior", "lula_july": 39.4, "lula_august": 39.4, "lula_delta": 0.0, "flavio_july": 29.3, "flavio_august": 34.3, "flavio_delta": 5.1, "gap_july": 10.1, "gap_august": 5.1 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "PEA informal", "lula_july": 44.4, "lula_august": 42.4, "lula_delta": -2.0, "flavio_july": 32.3, "flavio_august": 37.4, "flavio_delta": 5.1, "gap_july": 12.1, "gap_august": 5.1 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "Fora da força", "lula_july": 55.6, "lula_august": 48.5, "lula_delta": -7.1, "flavio_july": 27.3, "flavio_august": 31.3, "flavio_delta": 4.0, "gap_july": 28.3, "gap_august": 17.2 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Sul", "lula_july": 31.3, "lula_august": 27.3, "lula_delta": -4.0, "flavio_july": 47.5, "flavio_august": 51.5, "flavio_delta": 4.0, "gap_july": -16.2, "gap_august": -24.2 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Sudeste", "lula_july": 40.6, "lula_august": 42.0, "lula_delta": 1.4, "flavio_july": 31.7, "flavio_august": 35.0, "flavio_delta": 3.3, "gap_july": 8.9, "gap_august": 7.0 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "PEA formal", "lula_july": 31.3, "lula_august": 35.0, "lula_delta": 3.7, "flavio_july": 39.4, "flavio_august": 42.0, "flavio_delta": 2.6, "gap_july": -8.1, "gap_august": -7.0 }, { "dimension": "income", "category": "2 a 5 SM", "lula_july": 35.6, "lula_august": 38.4, "lula_delta": 2.7, "flavio_july": 37.6, "flavio_august": 39.4, "flavio_delta": 1.8, "gap_july": -2.0, "gap_august": -1.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "60 ou mais", "lula_july": 54.0, "lula_august": 49.5, "lula_delta": -4.5, "flavio_july": 29.0, "flavio_august": 30.7, "flavio_delta": 1.7, "gap_july": 25.0, "gap_august": 18.8 }, { "dimension": "income", "category": "Até 1 SM", "lula_july": 58.6, "lula_august": 53.5, "lula_delta": -5.1, "flavio_july": 24.2, "flavio_august": 25.7, "flavio_delta": 1.5, "gap_july": 34.3, "gap_august": 27.7 }, { "dimension": "sex", "category": "Mulheres", "lula_july": 47.5, "lula_august": 48.0, "lula_delta": 0.5, "flavio_july": 28.3, "flavio_august": 29.0, "flavio_delta": 0.7, "gap_july": 19.2, "gap_august": 19.0 }, { "dimension": "income", "category": "Mais de 5 SM", "lula_july": 34.3, "lula_august": 39.0, "lula_delta": 4.7, "flavio_july": 37.4, "flavio_august": 38.0, "flavio_delta": 0.6, "gap_july": -3.0, "gap_august": 1.0 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "Desocupados", "lula_july": 41.4, "lula_august": 42.0, "lula_delta": 0.6, "flavio_july": 30.3, "flavio_august": 30.0, "flavio_delta": -0.3, "gap_july": 11.1, "gap_august": 12.0 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Evangélicos", "lula_july": 28.3, "lula_august": 28.0, "lula_delta": -0.3, "flavio_july": 50.5, "flavio_august": 50.0, "flavio_delta": -0.5, "gap_july": -22.2, "gap_august": -22.0 }, { "dimension": "education", "category": "Médio", "lula_july": 35.0, "lula_august": 40.0, "lula_delta": 5.0, "flavio_july": 39.0, "flavio_august": 37.0, "flavio_delta": -2.0, "gap_july": -4.0, "gap_august": 3.0 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Outras religiões", "lula_july": 35.4, "lula_august": 46.5, "lula_delta": 11.1, "flavio_july": 32.3, "flavio_august": 30.3, "flavio_delta": -2.0, "gap_july": 3.0, "gap_august": 16.2 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Sem religião", "lula_july": 49.5, "lula_august": 52.5, "lula_delta": 3.0, "flavio_july": 25.7, "flavio_august": 23.2, "flavio_delta": -2.5, "gap_july": 23.8, "gap_august": 29.3 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Norte/Centro-Oeste", "lula_july": 33.3, "lula_august": 40.0, "lula_delta": 6.7, "flavio_july": 39.4, "flavio_august": 34.0, "flavio_delta": -5.4, "gap_july": -6.1, "gap_august": 6.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "16 a 24", "lula_july": 34.7, "lula_august": 50.0, "lula_delta": 15.3, "flavio_july": 30.7, "flavio_august": 21.0, "flavio_delta": -9.7, "gap_july": 4.0, "gap_august": 29.0 } ], "runoff": [ { "dimension": "income", "category": "1 a 2 SM", "lula_july": 53.0, "lula_august": 43.0, "lula_delta": -10.0, "flavio_july": 39.0, "flavio_august": 49.0, "flavio_delta": 10.0, "gap_july": 14.0, "gap_august": -6.0 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Nordeste", "lula_july": 62.0, "lula_august": 52.5, "lula_delta": -9.5, "flavio_july": 30.0, "flavio_august": 39.4, "flavio_delta": 9.4, "gap_july": 32.0, "gap_august": 13.1 }, { "dimension": "education", "category": "Fundamental", "lula_july": 58.6, "lula_august": 47.5, "lula_delta": -11.1, "flavio_july": 34.3, "flavio_august": 43.4, "flavio_delta": 9.1, "gap_july": 24.2, "gap_august": 4.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "41 a 59", "lula_july": 45.5, "lula_august": 43.0, "lula_delta": -2.5, "flavio_july": 41.6, "flavio_august": 48.0, "flavio_delta": 6.4, "gap_july": 4.0, "gap_august": -5.0 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "Desocupados", "lula_july": 47.0, "lula_august": 51.5, "lula_delta": 4.5, "flavio_july": 34.0, "flavio_august": 40.4, "flavio_delta": 6.4, "gap_july": 13.0, "gap_august": 11.1 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "Fora da força", "lula_july": 59.0, "lula_august": 52.0, "lula_delta": -7.0, "flavio_july": 34.0, "flavio_august": 39.0, "flavio_delta": 5.0, "gap_july": 25.0, "gap_august": 13.0 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Católicos", "lula_july": 55.0, "lula_august": 51.0, "lula_delta": -4.0, "flavio_july": 36.0, "flavio_august": 41.0, "flavio_delta": 5.0, "gap_july": 19.0, "gap_august": 10.0 }, { "dimension": "condition", "category": "Interior", "lula_july": 48.0, "lula_august": 44.0, "lula_delta": -4.0, "flavio_july": 44.0, "flavio_august": 48.0, "flavio_delta": 4.0, "gap_july": 4.0, "gap_august": -4.0 }, { "dimension": "income", "category": "Até 1 SM", "lula_july": 62.0, "lula_august": 58.0, "lula_delta": -4.0, "flavio_july": 28.0, "flavio_august": 32.0, "flavio_delta": 4.0, "gap_july": 34.0, "gap_august": 26.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "25 a 40", "lula_july": 42.0, "lula_august": 39.0, "lula_delta": -3.0, "flavio_july": 48.0, "flavio_august": 51.0, "flavio_delta": 3.0, "gap_july": -6.0, "gap_august": -12.0 }, { "dimension": "sex", "category": "Homens", "lula_july": 41.0, "lula_august": 37.0, "lula_delta": -4.0, "flavio_july": 50.0, "flavio_august": 53.0, "flavio_delta": 3.0, "gap_july": -9.0, "gap_august": -16.0 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "PEA informal", "lula_july": 48.5, "lula_august": 46.5, "lula_delta": -2.0, "flavio_july": 41.4, "flavio_august": 43.6, "flavio_delta": 2.2, "gap_july": 7.1, "gap_august": 3.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "60 ou mais", "lula_july": 59.0, "lula_august": 53.0, "lula_delta": -6.0, "flavio_july": 36.0, "flavio_august": 38.0, "flavio_delta": 2.0, "gap_july": 23.0, "gap_august": 15.0 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Sul", "lula_july": 35.6, "lula_august": 32.3, "lula_delta": -3.3, "flavio_july": 56.4, "flavio_august": 57.6, "flavio_delta": 1.1, "gap_july": -20.8, "gap_august": -25.3 }, { "dimension": "education", "category": "Superior", "lula_july": 44.0, "lula_august": 46.0, "lula_delta": 2.0, "flavio_july": 44.0, "flavio_august": 45.0, "flavio_delta": 1.0, "gap_july": 0.0, "gap_august": 1.0 }, { "dimension": "sex", "category": "Mulheres", "lula_july": 54.0, "lula_august": 53.5, "lula_delta": -0.5, "flavio_july": 36.0, "flavio_august": 36.6, "flavio_delta": 0.6, "gap_july": 18.0, "gap_august": 16.8 }, { "dimension": "condition", "category": "Região metropolitana", "lula_july": 48.0, "lula_august": 45.0, "lula_delta": -3.0, "flavio_july": 42.0, "flavio_august": 42.0, "flavio_delta": 0.0, "gap_july": 6.0, "gap_august": 3.0 }, { "dimension": "condition", "category": "Capital", "lula_july": 47.0, "lula_august": 49.0, "lula_delta": 2.0, "flavio_july": 40.0, "flavio_august": 39.0, "flavio_delta": -1.0, "gap_july": 7.0, "gap_august": 10.0 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Sudeste", "lula_july": 45.0, "lula_august": 47.0, "lula_delta": 2.0, "flavio_july": 43.0, "flavio_august": 42.0, "flavio_delta": -1.0, "gap_july": 2.0, "gap_august": 5.0 }, { "dimension": "income", "category": "2 a 5 SM", "lula_july": 42.0, "lula_august": 41.6, "lula_delta": -0.4, "flavio_july": 48.0, "flavio_august": 46.5, "flavio_delta": -1.5, "gap_july": -6.0, "gap_august": -5.0 }, { "dimension": "income", "category": "Mais de 5 SM", "lula_july": 39.0, "lula_august": 42.6, "lula_delta": 3.6, "flavio_july": 51.0, "flavio_august": 49.5, "flavio_delta": -1.5, "gap_july": -12.0, "gap_august": -6.9 }, { "dimension": "labour", "category": "PEA formal", "lula_july": 37.0, "lula_august": 39.4, "lula_delta": 2.4, "flavio_july": 52.0, "flavio_august": 50.5, "flavio_delta": -1.5, "gap_july": -15.0, "gap_august": -11.1 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Sem religião", "lula_july": 57.6, "lula_august": 60.0, "lula_delta": 2.4, "flavio_july": 31.3, "flavio_august": 29.0, "flavio_delta": -2.3, "gap_july": 26.3, "gap_august": 31.0 }, { "dimension": "region", "category": "Norte/Centro-Oeste", "lula_july": 40.6, "lula_august": 44.0, "lula_delta": 3.4, "flavio_july": 50.5, "flavio_august": 48.0, "flavio_delta": -2.5, "gap_july": -9.9, "gap_august": -4.0 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Evangélicos", "lula_july": 30.0, "lula_august": 31.0, "lula_delta": 1.0, "flavio_july": 62.0, "flavio_august": 59.0, "flavio_delta": -3.0, "gap_july": -32.0, "gap_august": -28.0 }, { "dimension": "religion", "category": "Outras religiões", "lula_july": 40.0, "lula_august": 48.5, "lula_delta": 8.5, "flavio_july": 44.0, "flavio_august": 40.4, "flavio_delta": -3.6, "gap_july": -4.0, "gap_august": 8.1 }, { "dimension": "education", "category": "Médio", "lula_july": 40.0, "lula_august": 44.0, "lula_delta": 4.0, "flavio_july": 49.0, "flavio_august": 45.0, "flavio_delta": -4.0, "gap_july": -9.0, "gap_august": -1.0 }, { "dimension": "age", "category": "16 a 24", "lula_july": 42.0, "lula_august": 56.0, "lula_delta": 14.0, "flavio_july": 46.0, "flavio_august": 31.0, "flavio_delta": -15.0, "gap_july": -4.0, "gap_august": 25.0 } ] }, "transfer": { "sources": [ "Lula", "Flávio", "Caiado", "Renan", "Zema", "Cury", "Daciolo", "Samara", "B/N", "NS" ], "destinations": [ "Lula", "Flávio", "B/N", "NS" ], "matrix": [ [ 40.947, 0.116, 0.247, 0.1 ], [ 0.271, 36.67, 0.267, 0.162 ], [ 0.867, 2.653, 1.53, 0.0 ], [ 0.6, 1.6, 1.8, 0.04 ], [ 0.364, 1.727, 0.818, 0.121 ], [ 0.43, 0.4, 0.18, 0.0 ], [ 0.357, 0.316, 0.112, 0.224 ], [ 0.337, 0.255, 0.337, 0.082 ], [ 1.007, 0.696, 2.216, 0.121 ], [ 0.82, 0.567, 0.494, 1.149 ] ], "measured_rows": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "inferred_rows": [ 0, 1, 8, 9 ], "row_targets_scaled": [ 41.41, 37.37, 5.05, 4.04, 3.03, 1.01, 1.01, 1.01, 4.04, 3.03 ], "column_targets": [ 46.0, 45.0, 8.0, 2.0 ], "measured_pool": { "source": "Relatório de 03/08, p. 51, cruzamento de voto do 1º com o 2º turno", "pool_points": 15.15, "to_lula": 2.955, "to_flavio": 6.951, "to_blank_or_null": 4.777, "to_undecided": 0.467, "ratio_flavio_lula": 2.353, "note": "Razão medida pelo próprio instituto entre o eleitorado dos seis candidatos menores. Não é inferência desta auditoria." }, "consolidation": { "Lula": 4.59, "Flávio": 7.63, "ratio_flavio_lula": 1.662 }, "method_note": "Seis linhas vêm publicadas na p. 51 e entram como medição. As quatro linhas que a Nexus não publica (base de Lula, base de Flávio, branco/nulo e NS) são estimadas por IPF contra prior ideológica explícita, fechando exatamente as margens divulgadas." }, "second_choice_july": { "Lula": [ 13, 7, 11, 5, 6, 3, 44, 11 ], "Flávio": [ 25, 28, 8, 0, 5, 6, 19, 7 ], "Renan": [ 21, 21, 0, 20, 7, 12, 16, 2 ], "Caiado": [ 0, 19, 6, 29, 8, 2, 11, 3 ], "Zema": [ 32, 0, 2, 33, 6, 5, 10, 5 ] }, "uncontrolled": { "controlled_frozen": { "sex": true, "age": true, "education": true, "region": true }, "controlled_values": { "sex": [ [ 53, 47 ], [ 53, 47 ] ], "age": [ [ 12, 30, 34, 24 ], [ 12, 30, 34, 24 ] ], "education": [ [ 36, 41, 23 ], [ 36, 41, 23 ] ], "region": [ [ 16, 28, 42, 14 ], [ 16, 28, 42, 14 ] ] }, "declared_quota_report": [ "sexo", "idade", "escolaridade", "tipo de telefonia", "DDD" ], "declared_quota_tse": [ "região", "tipo de telefonia", "sexo", "idade", "escolaridade" ], "declared_weighting_extra_tse": [ "dentro e fora da força de trabalho", "renda" ], "religion": { "labels": [ "Católicos", "Evangélicos", "Outras religiões", "Sem religião" ], "first": { "july_profile": [ 53, 25, 9, 12 ], "august_profile": [ 48, 30, 9, 12 ], "july_published": [ 42, 33 ], "august_published": [ 41, 37 ], "july_reproduced": [ 42.59, 33.27 ], "august_reproduced": [ 41.16, 37.04 ], "counterfactual_august_on_july_profile": [ 42.04, 36.22 ], "Lula": { "total": -1.43, "composition": -1.05, "behaviour": -0.55 }, "Flávio": { "total": 3.78, "composition": 1.19, "behaviour": 2.95 }, "gap_published_july": 9, "gap_published_august": 4, "gap_august_on_july_profile": 5.82 }, "runoff": { "july_profile": [ 53, 25, 9, 12 ], "august_profile": [ 48, 30, 9, 12 ], "july_published": [ 47, 43 ], "august_published": [ 46, 45 ], "july_reproduced": [ 47.64, 42.72 ], "august_reproduced": [ 45.8, 44.95 ], "counterfactual_august_on_july_profile": [ 46.81, 44.04 ], "Lula": { "total": -1.83, "composition": -1.26, "behaviour": -0.82 }, "Flávio": { "total": 2.22, "composition": 1.31, "behaviour": 1.31 }, "gap_published_july": 4, "gap_published_august": 1, "gap_august_on_july_profile": 2.78 } }, "religion_shift_test": [ { "category": "Católicos", "july_pct": 53, "august_pct": 48, "change_pp": -5, "se_srs_pp": 1.578, "z_srs": -3.169, "p_two_sided": 0.00153, "deff_to_erase": 2.61 }, { "category": "Evangélicos", "july_pct": 25, "august_pct": 30, "change_pp": 5, "se_srs_pp": 1.409, "z_srs": 3.549, "p_two_sided": 0.00039, "deff_to_erase": 3.28 }, { "category": "Outras religiões", "july_pct": 9, "august_pct": 9, "change_pp": 0, "se_srs_pp": 0.904, "z_srs": 0.0, "p_two_sided": 1.0, "deff_to_erase": 0.0 }, { "category": "Sem religião", "july_pct": 12, "august_pct": 12, "change_pp": 0, "se_srs_pp": 1.027, "z_srs": 0.0, "p_two_sided": 1.0, "deff_to_erase": 0.0 } ], "labour_shift_test": [ { "category": "PEA formal", "july_pct": 42, "august_pct": 43, "change_pp": 1, "se_srs_pp": 1.562, "z_srs": 0.64, "p_two_sided": 0.52204, "deff_to_erase": 0.11 }, { "category": "PEA informal", "july_pct": 17, "august_pct": 17, "change_pp": 0, "se_srs_pp": 1.187, "z_srs": 0.0, "p_two_sided": 1.0, "deff_to_erase": 0.0 }, { "category": "Desocupados", "july_pct": 5, "august_pct": 5, "change_pp": 0, "se_srs_pp": 0.689, "z_srs": 0.0, "p_two_sided": 1.0, "deff_to_erase": 0.0 }, { "category": "Não PEA", "july_pct": 35, "august_pct": 35, "change_pp": 0, "se_srs_pp": 1.507, "z_srs": 0.0, "p_two_sided": 1.0, "deff_to_erase": 0.0 } ], "labour": { "labels": [ "PEA formal", "PEA informal", "Desocupados", "Não PEA" ], "first": { "july_profile": [ 42, 17, 5, 35 ], "august_profile": [ 43, 17, 5, 35 ], "july_published": [ 42, 33 ], "august_published": [ 41, 37 ], "july_reproduced": [ 42.65, 33.44 ], "august_reproduced": [ 41.33, 36.87 ], "counterfactual_august_on_july_profile": [ 41.4, 36.82 ], "Lula": { "total": -1.32, "composition": -0.11, "behaviour": -1.25 }, "Flávio": { "total": 3.44, "composition": 0.06, "behaviour": 3.39 }, "gap_published_july": 9, "gap_published_august": 4, "gap_august_on_july_profile": 4.57 }, "runoff": { "july_profile": [ 42, 17, 5, 35 ], "august_profile": [ 43, 17, 5, 35 ], "july_published": [ 47, 43 ], "august_published": [ 46, 45 ], "july_reproduced": [ 47.25, 42.91 ], "august_reproduced": [ 45.63, 44.79 ], "counterfactual_august_on_july_profile": [ 45.69, 44.74 ], "Lula": { "total": -1.63, "composition": -0.1, "behaviour": -1.57 }, "Flávio": { "total": 1.88, "composition": 0.09, "behaviour": 1.83 }, "gap_published_july": 4, "gap_published_august": 1, "gap_august_on_july_profile": 0.95 } }, "income": { "labels": [ "Até 1 SM", "1-2 SM", "2-5 SM", "5+ SM" ], "first": { "july_profile": [ 23, 17, 40, 20 ], "august_profile": [ 22, 18, 40, 21 ], "july_published": [ 42, 33 ], "august_published": [ 41, 37 ], "july_reproduced": [ 42.67, 33.25 ], "august_reproduced": [ 41.62, 37.03 ], "counterfactual_august_on_july_profile": [ 41.8, 36.83 ], "Lula": { "total": -1.05, "composition": -0.19, "behaviour": -0.87 }, "Flávio": { "total": 3.78, "composition": 0.1, "behaviour": 3.58 }, "gap_published_july": 9, "gap_published_august": 4, "gap_august_on_july_profile": 4.97 }, "runoff": { "july_profile": [ 23, 17, 40, 20 ], "august_profile": [ 22, 18, 40, 21 ], "july_published": [ 47, 43 ], "august_published": [ 46, 45 ], "july_reproduced": [ 47.87, 42.47 ], "august_reproduced": [ 45.62, 44.43 ], "counterfactual_august_on_july_profile": [ 45.8, 44.2 ], "Lula": { "total": -2.25, "composition": -0.18, "behaviour": -2.07 }, "Flávio": { "total": 1.96, "composition": 0.19, "behaviour": 1.73 }, "gap_published_july": 4, "gap_published_august": 1, "gap_august_on_july_profile": 1.59 } }, "warning": "Decomposição descritiva sobre percentuais publicados. A ponderação do instituto é conjunta e não publicada; nada aqui mede voto individual." }, "field_geography": { "july": { "interviews": 2004, "matches_report_n": true, "uf_ratio_to_tse": { "AC": 2.435, "AL": 1.032, "AM": 0.478, "AP": 0.954, "BA": 1.078, "CE": 0.754, "DF": 1.363, "ES": 2.133, "GO": 1.008, "MA": 0.349, "MG": 0.991, "MS": 0.389, "MT": 1.791, "PA": 0.578, "PB": 0.606, "PE": 1.112, "PI": 0.582, "PR": 1.079, "RJ": 1.115, "RN": 1.066, "RO": 1.987, "RR": 1.765, "RS": 1.127, "SC": 0.839, "SE": 1.494, "SP": 0.945, "TO": 1.865 }, "uf_interviews": { "DF": 39, "GO": 65, "MT": 60, "MS": 10, "AL": 32, "BA": 155, "CE": 67, "MA": 23, "PB": 25, "PE": 102, "PI": 20, "RN": 36, "SE": 33, "AC": 19, "AP": 7, "AM": 17, "PA": 46, "RO": 32, "RR": 9, "TO": 28, "ES": 81, "MG": 206, "RJ": 182, "SP": 409, "PR": 118, "RS": 122, "SC": 61 }, "region_field_pct": { "Centro-Oeste": 8.68, "Nordeste": 24.6, "Norte": 7.88, "Sudeste": 43.81, "Sul": 15.02 }, "region_field_pct_report_bands": { "Norte/Centro-Oeste": 16.57, "Nordeste": 24.6, "Sudeste": 43.81, "Sul": 15.02 }, "region_published_pct": { "Norte/Centro-Oeste": 16, "Nordeste": 28, "Sudeste": 42, "Sul": 14 }, "northeast_field_pct": 24.6, "capital_field_pct": 29.39, "chi2_vs_tse": 214.0, "chi2_df": 26, "p_vs_tse": 0.0, "deff_uf_calibration": 1.125, "effective_n": 1781, "moe_srs_pp": 2.19, "moe_with_uf_calibration_pp": 2.32, "moe_published_pp": 2 }, "august": { "interviews": 2002, "matches_report_n": true, "uf_ratio_to_tse": { "AC": 1.411, "AL": 1.001, "AM": 0.591, "AP": 0.955, "BA": 1.003, "CE": 0.845, "DF": 1.715, "ES": 1.028, "GO": 1.102, "MA": 0.502, "MG": 1.064, "MS": 0.934, "MT": 0.956, "PA": 0.944, "PB": 0.971, "PE": 0.851, "PI": 1.223, "PR": 1.062, "RJ": 1.079, "RN": 1.096, "RO": 0.932, "RR": 0.982, "RS": 1.082, "SC": 1.088, "SE": 0.997, "SP": 0.973, "TO": 1.4 }, "uf_interviews": { "DF": 49, "GO": 71, "MT": 32, "MS": 24, "AL": 31, "BA": 144, "CE": 75, "MA": 33, "PB": 40, "PE": 78, "PI": 42, "RN": 37, "SE": 22, "AC": 11, "AP": 7, "AM": 21, "PA": 75, "RO": 15, "RR": 5, "TO": 21, "ES": 39, "MG": 221, "RJ": 176, "SP": 421, "PR": 116, "RS": 117, "SC": 79 }, "region_field_pct": { "Centro-Oeste": 8.79, "Nordeste": 25.07, "Norte": 7.74, "Sudeste": 42.81, "Sul": 15.58 }, "region_field_pct_report_bands": { "Norte/Centro-Oeste": 16.53, "Nordeste": 25.07, "Sudeste": 42.81, "Sul": 15.58 }, "region_published_pct": { "Norte/Centro-Oeste": 16, "Nordeste": 28, "Sudeste": 42, "Sul": 14 }, "northeast_field_pct": 25.07, "capital_field_pct": 30.47, "chi2_vs_tse": 51.9, "chi2_df": 26, "p_vs_tse": 0.00183, "deff_uf_calibration": 1.033, "effective_n": 1939, "moe_srs_pp": 2.19, "moe_with_uf_calibration_pp": 2.23, "moe_published_pp": 2 }, "p_august_vs_july_allocation": 0.0, "chi2_august_vs_july_allocation": 148.7, "capital_published_pct": { "july": 25, "august": 27 }, "note": "A distribuição por município é a contagem bruta de entrevistas filhada ao TSE; o perfil publicado no relatório já é ponderado. A diferença entre as duas é o efeito da ponderação geográfica." }, "series_dispersion": { "waves": 8, "rows": [ { "series": "Bolsonarista convicto vota Flávio", "base_share": 0.29, "implied_n": 581, "mean": 68.75, "sd_observed": 1.16, "sd_srs_expected": 1.92, "ratio": 0.61, "implied_deff": 0.37, "chi2": 2.57, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.078, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.922, "moe_srs_pp": 3.77 }, { "series": "1º turno, Lula", "base_share": 1.0, "implied_n": 2002, "mean": 41.12, "sd_observed": 0.83, "sd_srs_expected": 1.1, "ratio": 0.76, "implied_deff": 0.58, "chi2": 4.03, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.2238, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.7762, "moe_srs_pp": 2.16 }, { "series": "2º turno, Lula", "base_share": 1.0, "implied_n": 2002, "mean": 46.88, "sd_observed": 0.99, "sd_srs_expected": 1.12, "ratio": 0.89, "implied_deff": 0.79, "chi2": 5.53, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.4041, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.5959, "moe_srs_pp": 2.19 }, { "series": "Aprovação do governo", "base_share": 1.0, "implied_n": 2002, "mean": 46.88, "sd_observed": 0.99, "sd_srs_expected": 1.12, "ratio": 0.89, "implied_deff": 0.79, "chi2": 5.53, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.4041, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.5959, "moe_srs_pp": 2.19 }, { "series": "2º turno, Flávio", "base_share": 1.0, "implied_n": 2002, "mean": 44.12, "sd_observed": 1.13, "sd_srs_expected": 1.11, "ratio": 1.01, "implied_deff": 1.03, "chi2": 7.21, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.5923, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.4077, "moe_srs_pp": 2.18 }, { "series": "Bolsonaro como alternativa vota Flávio", "base_share": 0.06, "implied_n": 120, "mean": 40.5, "sd_observed": 5.01, "sd_srs_expected": 4.48, "ratio": 1.12, "implied_deff": 1.25, "chi2": 8.77, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.7306, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.2694, "moe_srs_pp": 8.78 }, { "series": "Lula como alternativa vota Lula", "base_share": 0.05, "implied_n": 100, "mean": 48.75, "sd_observed": 6.88, "sd_srs_expected": 5.0, "ratio": 1.38, "implied_deff": 1.9, "chi2": 13.28, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.9345, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.0655, "moe_srs_pp": 9.79 }, { "series": "Lulista convicto vota Lula", "base_share": 0.25, "implied_n": 500, "mean": 81.75, "sd_observed": 2.66, "sd_srs_expected": 1.73, "ratio": 1.54, "implied_deff": 2.37, "chi2": 16.61, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.9799, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.0201, "moe_srs_pp": 3.38 }, { "series": "1º turno, Flávio", "base_share": 1.0, "implied_n": 2002, "mean": 35.0, "sd_observed": 1.85, "sd_srs_expected": 1.07, "ratio": 1.74, "implied_deff": 3.02, "chi2": 21.12, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 0.9964, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.0036, "moe_srs_pp": 2.09 }, { "series": "Comparecimento declarado", "base_share": 1.0, "implied_n": 2002, "mean": 94.62, "sd_observed": 1.19, "sd_srs_expected": 0.5, "ratio": 2.36, "implied_deff": 5.55, "chi2": 38.87, "chi2_df": 7, "p_smoother_than_srs": 1.0, "p_noisier_than_srs": 0.0, "moe_srs_pp": 0.99 } ], "published_moe_pp": 2, "note": "Razão acima de 1 indica série que oscila mais do que a amostragem explicaria; abaixo de 1, série mais lisa do que o acaso. O relatório publica margem de erro por perfil (p. 114), mas nenhuma para os clusters de polarização." }, "documents_trail": { "available": true, "files": [ { "wave": "july", "file": "declaracao_estatistico.pdf", "pages": 1, "creator": "JasperReports Library version 6.21.5-74d586df47b25dbd05bd0957999819196e59934a", "producer": "OpenPDF 1.3.32", "author": "", "created": "D:20260721180934-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260721181852-03'00'" }, { "wave": "july", "file": "municipios.pdf", "pages": 21, "creator": "Microsoft® Word 2019", "producer": "Microsoft® Word 2019", "author": "Nexus", "created": "D:20260726165717-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260727093426-03'00'" }, { "wave": "july", "file": "questionario.pdf", "pages": 12, "creator": "Microsoft® Word para Microsoft 365", "producer": "Microsoft® Word para Microsoft 365", "author": "Nexus", "created": "D:20260721143935-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260721144401-03'00'" }, { "wave": "july", "file": "relatorio.pdf", "pages": 120, "creator": "Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2021", "producer": "Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2021", "author": "Microsoft Office User", "created": "D:20260726220510-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260727053128-03'00'" }, { "wave": "august", "file": "declaracao_estatistico.pdf", "pages": 1, "creator": "JasperReports Library version 6.21.5-74d586df47b25dbd05bd0957999819196e59934a", "producer": "OpenPDF 1.3.32", "author": "", "created": "D:20260728152640-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260728153018-03'00'" }, { "wave": "august", "file": "municipios.pdf", "pages": 19, "creator": "Microsoft® Word 2019", "producer": "Microsoft® Word 2019", "author": "Nexus", "created": "D:20260803072934-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260803082030-03'00'" }, { "wave": "august", "file": "nota_fiscal.pdf", "pages": 1, "creator": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/147.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", "producer": "Skia/PDF m147", "author": "", "created": "D:20260505221402+00'00'", "modified": "D:20260505221402+00'00'" }, { "wave": "august", "file": "questionario.pdf", "pages": 12, "creator": "Microsoft® Word para Microsoft 365", "producer": "Microsoft® Word para Microsoft 365", "author": "Nexus", "created": "D:20260728132008-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260728150421-03'00'" }, { "wave": "august", "file": "registro_tse.pdf", "pages": 2, "creator": "Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/150.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", "producer": "Skia/PDF m150", "author": "", "created": "D:20260803154640+00'00'", "modified": "D:20260803154640+00'00'" }, { "wave": "august", "file": "relatorio.pdf", "pages": 116, "creator": "Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2021", "producer": "Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2021", "author": "Microsoft Office User", "created": "D:20260803004620-03'00'", "modified": "D:20260803054252-03'00'" } ], "field": { "july": [ "24/07/2026", "26/07/2026" ], "august": [ "31/07/2026", "02/08/2026" ] }, "release": { "july": "27/07/2026", "august": "03/08/2026" }, "registration_august": { "id": "BR-02874/2026", "registered": "28/07/2026" }, "registration_july": { "id": "BR-01489/2026" }, "statistician_signature": { "july": "2026-07-21T18:18:52-03:00", "august": "2026-07-28T15:30:18-03:00" }, "invoice_august": { "number": 310, "issued": "2026-05-05", "due": "2026-06-05", "value_brl": 164888.89, "net_brl": 154748.22, "buyer": "BANCO BTG PACTUAL S.A.", "description_date": "1 de agosto de 2026", "provider_contact_domain": "fsb.com.br" }, "declared_value_brl": { "july": 164888.89, "august": 164888.89 }, "declared_interviews": { "july": 2000, "august": 2000 }, "realized_interviews": { "july": 2004, "august": 2002 } }, "questionnaire": { "stimulated_ballot_names": { "july": 7, "august": 12 }, "stimulated_added": [ "Samara Martins", "Rui Costa Pimenta", "Hertz Dias", "Heró Bezerra", "Edmilson Costa" ], "rejection_battery_names": { "july": 7, "august": 5 }, "rejection_removed": [ "Augusto Cury", "Cabo Daciolo" ], "removed_questions": [ "P5, segunda opção de voto no 1º turno", "P9A/P9B, motivação do voto no 2º turno (melhor candidato ou derrotar o adversário)", "P16, voto ideal, voto disponível ou voto útil", "P17, contra quem o eleitor está votando", "P18 a P20, bloco do tarifaço (conhecimento, natureza da decisão e quem está certo)" ], "added_questions": [ "P10 e P11, área de maior destaque positivo e negativo do governo", "P13, sete itens de vida comparando 2026 com 2022", "P14 e P15, responsabilidade do governo Lula pela melhora e pela piora de cada item", "P16, prioridade esperada do candidato de 2º turno" ], "questions_before_polarisation_scale": { "july": 24, "august": 23 }, "polarisation_scale_position": { "july": "P25 de 25", "august": "P24 de 24" }, "report_disclaimer_added_in_august": "A sequência de perguntas apresentadas neste relatório difere da ordem original das perguntas no instrumento de coleta registrado no TSE.", "note": "A mesma onda que ampliou a lista de voto de 7 para 12 nomes reduziu a bateria de rejeição de 7 para 5: Cury e Daciolo passaram a poder receber voto sem poder receber rejeição." }, "uncertainty": { "first_gap": 4, "first_gap_moe_srs": 3.865, "runoff_gap": 1, "runoff_gap_moe_srs": 4.178, "first_gap_moe_deff": 3.928, "runoff_gap_moe_deff": 4.246, "deff_uf_calibration": 1.033, "first_gap_survives_srs": true, "first_gap_ci_low": 0.135, "first_gap_deff_to_erase": 1.071, "runoff_gap_survives_srs": false, "significance_note": "A diferença do 1º turno sobrevive por pouco: o limite inferior do intervalo fica em +0,1 ponto e um efeito de desenho de 1,07 já a anula, quando só a calibração geográfica medida aqui vale 1,033. A diferença do 2º turno não sobrevive: o intervalo contém o zero.", "warning": "Aproximação sob amostra aleatória simples. O desenho CATI, ponderação e efeito de desenho não publicados podem ampliar a incerteza." }, "women_pnad": { "universe": "Mulheres de 16 anos ou mais, PNAD Contínua anual 2025, 1ª visita", "warning": "Arquétipos domiciliares descritivos. PNAD não mede voto, religião, persuasibilidade ou intenção eleitoral.", "groups": [ { "group": "Casal com menor", "population_pct": 25.81, "age_mean": 38.45, "occupied": 59.78, "bolsa_familia": 24.69, "capital": 20.31, "northeast": 26.65, "income_mean_sm": 4.77 }, { "group": "Casal sem menor", "population_pct": 25.14, "age_mean": 51.23, "occupied": 50.91, "bolsa_familia": 6.42, "capital": 22.76, "northeast": 23.66, "income_mean_sm": 4.99 }, { "group": "Filha ou outra posição", "population_pct": 24.07, "age_mean": 35.7, "occupied": 46.3, "bolsa_familia": 4.07, "capital": 27.7, "northeast": 28.08, "income_mean_sm": 4.96 }, { "group": "Responsável sem cônjuge, sem menor", "population_pct": 15.63, "age_mean": 58.68, "occupied": 41.96, "bolsa_familia": 7.88, "capital": 28.96, "northeast": 26.41, "income_mean_sm": 2.85 }, { "group": "Responsável sem cônjuge, com menor", "population_pct": 9.35, "age_mean": 42.72, "occupied": 56.11, "bolsa_familia": 37.94, "capital": 23.99, "northeast": 33.01, "income_mean_sm": 2.17 } ] }, "sources": { "august": "https://www.nexus.fsb.com.br/estudos-divulgados/pesquisa-btg-nexus-de-intencao-de-votos-para-presidente-do-brasil-3-de-agosto-de-2026/", "july": "https://www.nexus.fsb.com.br/estudos-divulgados/pesquisa-btg-nexus-de-intencao-de-votos-para-presidente-do-brasil-27-de-julho-de-2026/", "ibge_pnad": "https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/trabalho/17270-pnad-continua.html", "tse_open": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/dataset/eleitorado-atual" } }