{ "metadata": { "registry": "BR-06773/2026", "registered": "2026-08-08", "published": "2026-08-14", "field": [ "2026-08-10", "2026-08-13" ], "interviews": 2004, "mode": "in-person household interview", "municipalities": 120, "census_sectors": 334, "interviews_per_sector": 6, "contractors": [ "Globo Comunicação e Participações S/A", "Editora Globo S/A" ], "sources": { "relatorio.pdf": { "bytes": 52904713, "sha256": "6cf7e4b4eb1da3ad5854168dc8770cb1afb1ed3e2cca112bbbd9f7fb70fb96e0", "pages": 197 }, "registro-tse.pdf": { "bytes": 170350, "sha256": "d2070e2220ee9101eef93ab5cb38dab2ee359fbf86e4b8d62b5f8306e7bd2cf7", "pages": 3 }, "questionario.pdf": { "bytes": 796077, "sha256": "b224ac105ec0076f717de7fd9cc51023faabe7a9233b1c6fc43cd4a35a8d4924", "pages": 23 }, "anexo-territorial.pdf": { "bytes": 287461, "sha256": "cd91e918c474d64158329d01313630be85a05163c209c53e14ff17017c22fc83", "pages": 16 }, "declaracao.pdf": { "bytes": 73248, "sha256": 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"issued": "2026-08-04", "amount_brl": 409646 } ], "contract": { "polls": 7, "regular_polls": 6, "regular_poll_brl": 314628, "seventh_poll_brl": 570108, "installments": 3, "installment_brl": 819292, "total_brl": 2457876, "due_dates": [ "2026-07-25", "2026-08-25", "2026-09-25" ] }, "current_vs_genial_previous": { "current_brl": 314628, "previous_brl": 433255.92, "difference_brl": -118627.92, "difference_pct": -27.38, "current_cost_per_interview_brl": 157.0, "previous_cost_per_interview_brl": 216.2, "seventh_premium_pct": 81.2 }, "interpretation": "The six invoices are paired 50% shares of three contract installments, not six separate payments for this single round." }, "first_round": { "page": 16, "values": { "Lula": 38, "Flávio Bolsonaro": 31, "Renan Santos": 4, "Ronaldo Caiado": 4, "Augusto Cury": 2, "Romeu Zema": 2, "Samara Martins": 1, "Clariana Barão": 0, "Edmilson Costa": 0, "Hertz Dias": 0, "Leonardo Avalanche": 0, "Rui Costa Pimenta": 0, "Wilson Grassi": 0, "Indeciso": 10, "Branco, nulo ou não vota": 8 } }, "runoffs": { "page": [ 30, 40, 50, 60 ], "values": { "Flávio Bolsonaro": { "Lula": 43, "challenger": 40, "blank": 13, "undecided": 4 }, "Ronaldo Caiado": { "Lula": 44, "challenger": 37, "blank": 14, "undecided": 5 }, "Renan Santos": { "Lula": 44, "challenger": 36, "blank": 16, "undecided": 4 }, "Romeu Zema": { "Lula": 45, "challenger": 34, "blank": 16, "undecided": 5 } } }, "positioning": { "page": 24, "shares": { "Lulista": 19, "Esquerda não lulista": 14, "Independente": 32, "Direita não bolsonarista": 21, "Bolsonarista": 12, "Não sabe": 2 }, "first_round": { "Lulista": { "Lula": 91, "Flávio": 1, "Renan": 0, "Caiado": 0, "Cury": 0, "Zema": 1, "Samara": 1, "Outros": 1, "Indeciso": 3, "Branco": 2 }, "Esquerda não lulista": { "Lula": 81, "Flávio": 2, "Renan": 1, "Caiado": 0, "Cury": 2, "Zema": 1, "Samara": 1, "Outros": 0, "Indeciso": 7, "Branco": 5 }, "Independente": { "Lula": 23, "Flávio": 16, "Renan": 8, "Caiado": 6, "Cury": 4, "Zema": 3, "Samara": 1, "Outros": 1, "Indeciso": 20, "Branco": 18 }, "Direita não bolsonarista": { "Lula": 5, "Flávio": 70, "Renan": 5, "Caiado": 6, "Cury": 2, "Zema": 3, "Samara": 0, "Outros": 0, "Indeciso": 6, "Branco": 3 }, "Bolsonarista": { "Lula": 3, "Flávio": 90, "Renan": 1, "Caiado": 2, "Cury": 0, "Zema": 0, "Samara": 0, "Outros": 0, "Indeciso": 2, "Branco": 2 } } }, "positioning_control": { "known_position_share": 98, "recomposed": { "Lula": 37.4, "Flávio": 31.09 }, "published": { "Lula": 38, "Flávio": 31 }, "residual_context": "The crosstab excludes the 2% without a declared political position and uses rounded cells." }, "segments": { "page": 31, "runoff": { "Nordeste": [ 61, 26 ], "Até 2 SM": [ 58, 27 ], "Preta": [ 52, 30 ], "Fundamental": [ 52, 31 ], "Católica": [ 50, 36 ], "60 anos ou mais": [ 48, 35 ], "Mulheres": [ 44, 35 ], "Parda": [ 44, 37 ], "Centro-Oeste/Norte": [ 42, 41 ], "16 a 34 anos": [ 41, 41 ], "35 a 59 anos": [ 42, 42 ], "Homens": [ 41, 45 ], "2 a 5 SM": [ 38, 43 ], "Branca": [ 38, 45 ], "Sudeste": [ 36, 44 ], "Médio": [ 36, 45 ], "Superior": [ 36, 47 ], "Mais de 5 SM": [ 34, 48 ], "Evangélica": [ 28, 53 ], "Sul": [ 27, 54 ] }, "Flávio_margin": { "Nordeste": -35, "Até 2 SM": -31, "Preta": -22, "Fundamental": -21, "Católica": -14, "60 anos ou mais": -13, "Mulheres": -9, "Parda": -7, "Centro-Oeste/Norte": -1, "16 a 34 anos": 0, "35 a 59 anos": 0, "Homens": 4, "2 a 5 SM": 5, "Branca": 7, "Sudeste": 8, "Médio": 9, "Superior": 11, "Mais de 5 SM": 14, "Evangélica": 25, "Sul": 27 } }, "approval": { "pages": [ 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119 ], "national": { "approve": 46, "disapprove": 48, "unknown": 6 }, "disapproval": { "Nordeste": 31, "Sudeste": 54, "Sul": 59, "Centro-Oeste/Norte": 48, "Mulheres": 45, "Homens": 51, "16 a 34 anos": 47, "35 a 59 anos": 50, "60 anos ou mais": 38, "Fundamental": 38, "Médio": 52, "Superior": 57, "Até 2 SM": 35, "2 a 5 SM": 51, "Mais de 5 SM": 57, "Católica": 42, "Evangélica": 60, "Branca": 43, "Parda": 43, "Preta": 40, "Independente": 48, "Direita não bolsonarista": 88, "Bolsonarista": 94 } }, "conversion_gap": { "segment_gaps": { "Nordeste": 5, "Até 2 SM": 8, "Preta": 10, "Fundamental": 7, "Católica": 6, "60 anos ou mais": 3, "Mulheres": 10, "Parda": 6, "Centro-Oeste/Norte": 7, "16 a 34 anos": 6, "35 a 59 anos": 8, "Homens": 6, "2 a 5 SM": 8, "Branca": -2, "Sudeste": 10, "Médio": 7, "Superior": 10, "Mais de 5 SM": 9, "Evangélica": 7, "Sul": 5 }, "closed_partitions": { "region": { "disapproval": 47.47, "Flávio_runoff": 40.03, "addressable_ceiling_gap": 7.44 }, "sex": { "disapproval": 47.82, "Flávio_runoff": 39.7, "addressable_ceiling_gap": 8.12 }, "age": { "disapproval": 46.19, "Flávio_runoff": 40.01, "addressable_ceiling_gap": 6.18 }, "education": { "disapproval": 47.21, "Flávio_runoff": 39.64, "addressable_ceiling_gap": 7.57 }, "income": { "disapproval": 47.66, "Flávio_runoff": 39.39, "addressable_ceiling_gap": 8.27 } }, "label": "addressable ceiling, not forecast" }, "channels": { "pages": [ 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167 ], "national": { "Redes sociais": 35, "TV": 34, "Sites": 10, "Amigos/família": 6, "Rádio": 3, "WhatsApp": 3, "Impresso": 2, "Chat com IA": 1, "Não se informa": 5, "Não sabe": 1 }, "segments": { "Mulheres": [ 31, 38 ], "Homens": [ 38, 29 ], "16 a 34 anos": [ 56, 15 ], "35 a 59 anos": [ 30, 39 ], "60 anos ou mais": [ 16, 52 ], "Fundamental": [ 23, 43 ], "Médio": [ 42, 29 ], "Superior": [ 45, 23 ], "Até 2 SM": [ 30, 39 ], "2 a 5 SM": [ 35, 33 ], "Mais de 5 SM": [ 36, 28 ], "Lulista": [ 21, 47 ], "Esquerda não lulista": [ 33, 32 ], "Independente": [ 33, 32 ], "Direita não bolsonarista": [ 48, 25 ], "Bolsonarista": [ 39, 31 ] } }, "other_findings": { "vote_certainty_page": 28, "vote_certainty": { "Lula": 77, "Flávio Bolsonaro": 70, "Renan Santos": 57, "Ronaldo Caiado": 55, "Romeu Zema": 23 }, "potential_rejection_page": 71, "potential_rejection": { "Lula": [ 45, 52 ], "Flávio Bolsonaro": [ 41, 54 ], "Ronaldo Caiado": [ 22, 35 ], "Romeu Zema": [ 19, 34 ], "Renan Santos": [ 14, 21 ] }, "fear_page": 81, "fear": { "Família Bolsonaro": 45, "Mais Lula": 41, "Ambos": 6, "Nenhum": 3, "Não sabe": 5 }, "expected_winner_page": 91, "expected_winner": { "Lula": 56, "Flávio Bolsonaro": 27, "Renan Santos": 1, "Romeu Zema": 1, "Ronaldo Caiado": 1, "Não sabe": 14 }, "direction_page": 131, "direction": { "Errada": 53, "Certa": 38, "Não sabe": 9 }, "economy_past_page": 141, "economy_past": { "Piorou": 49, "Ficou igual": 30, "Melhorou": 19, "Não sabe": 2 }, "food_page": 145, "food": { "Subiu": 68, "Ficou igual": 22, "Caiu": 8, "Não sabe": 2 }, "economy_future_page": 149, "economy_future": { "Melhorar": 42, "Ficar igual": 24, "Piorar": 28, "Não sabe": 6 }, "concerns_page": 154, "concerns": { "Violência": 33, "Economia": 15, "Saúde": 14, "Corrupção": 14, "Questões sociais": 12, "Educação": 7, "Outros": 5 }, "ideology_page": 169, "ideology": { "Esquerda": 23, "Centro": 20, "Direita": 40, "Não sabe": 17 }, "morals_page": 178, "morals": { "Progressista": 28, "Nenhum": 18, "Conservador": 54 } }, "uncertainty": { "assumption": "simple random sample approximation; actual weights, PSU covariance and design effect are unpublished", "first_round": { "lead": 7, "difference_moe_95": 3.62, "difference_interval_95": [ 3.38, 10.62 ], "deff_to_include_zero": 3.73, "rho_with_six_per_sector": 0.546 }, "runoff": { "lead": 3, "difference_moe_95": 3.99, "difference_interval_95": [ -0.99, 6.99 ], "statistically_clear_under_srs": false }, "wave_change": "The 39 to 38 Lula and 30 to 31 Flávio first-round movement is within sampling noise under an SRS approximation." }, "transfer": { "method": "IPF/RAS with explicit ideological prior and structural zeros", "published_matrix_found": false, "measured_origin_rows": 0, "estimated_origin_rows": 9, "sources": { "Lula": 38, "Flávio": 31, "Renan": 4, "Caiado": 4, "Augusto Cury": 2, "Zema": 2, "Samara": 1, "Indeciso 1º": 10, "Branco 1º": 8 }, "targets": { "Lula": 43, "Flávio": 40, "Branco 2º": 13, "Indeciso 2º": 4 }, "prior": { "Lula": { "Lula": 0.995, "Flávio": 0.0, "Branco 2º": 0.0, "Indeciso 2º": 0.005 }, "Flávio": { "Lula": 0.0, "Flávio": 0.995, "Branco 2º": 0.0, "Indeciso 2º": 0.005 }, "Renan": { "Lula": 0.06, "Flávio": 0.58, "Branco 2º": 0.34, "Indeciso 2º": 0.02 }, "Caiado": { "Lula": 0.12, "Flávio": 0.5, "Branco 2º": 0.36, "Indeciso 2º": 0.02 }, "Augusto Cury": { "Lula": 0.25, "Flávio": 0.6, "Branco 2º": 0.12, "Indeciso 2º": 0.03 }, "Zema": { "Lula": 0.08, "Flávio": 0.55, "Branco 2º": 0.35, "Indeciso 2º": 0.02 }, "Samara": { "Lula": 0.98, "Flávio": 0.0, "Branco 2º": 0.01, "Indeciso 2º": 0.01 }, "Indeciso 1º": { "Lula": 0.18, "Flávio": 0.18, "Branco 2º": 0.34, "Indeciso 2º": 0.3 }, "Branco 1º": { "Lula": 0.1, "Flávio": 0.15, "Branco 2º": 0.72, "Indeciso 2º": 0.03 } }, "matrix": { "Lula": { "Lula": 37.811, "Flávio": 0.0, "Branco 2º": 0.0, "Indeciso 2º": 0.189 }, "Flávio": { "Lula": 0.0, "Flávio": 30.827, "Branco 2º": 0.0, "Indeciso 2º": 0.173 }, "Renan": { "Lula": 0.261, "Flávio": 2.246, "Branco 2º": 1.406, "Indeciso 2º": 0.086 }, "Caiado": { "Lula": 0.518, "Flávio": 1.92, "Branco 2º": 1.477, "Indeciso 2º": 0.086 }, "Augusto Cury": { "Lula": 0.539, "Flávio": 1.151, "Branco 2º": 0.246, "Indeciso 2º": 0.064 }, "Zema": { "Lula": 0.174, "Flávio": 1.062, "Branco 2º": 0.722, "Indeciso 2º": 0.043 }, "Samara": { "Lula": 0.981, "Flávio": 0.0, "Branco 2º": 0.01, "Indeciso 2º": 0.01 }, "Indeciso 1º": { "Lula": 1.873, "Flávio": 1.667, "Branco 2º": 3.363, "Indeciso 2º": 3.098 }, "Branco 1º": { "Lula": 0.844, "Flávio": 1.127, "Branco 2º": 5.778, "Indeciso 2º": 0.251 } }, "outside_base_gain": { "Lula": 5.189, "Flávio": 9.173, "Flávio_to_Lula_ratio": 1.768 }, "warning": "All ribbons are estimates. Aggregate consolidation is constrained by published margins; candidate-level splits depend on the prior." }, "territory_summary": { "rounds": { "previous": { "sectors": 334, "interviews": 2004, "municipalities": 120, "municipality_neighborhood_pairs": 324, "interviews_per_sector": { "6": 334 }, "regions": { "Centro-Oeste": 25, "Nordeste": 92, "Sudeste": 141, "Sul": 48, "Norte": 28 }, "states": { "GO": 9, "PI": 3, "SP": 68, "SC": 15, "MG": 32, "ES": 8, "PB": 9, "PA": 16, "MA": 12, "RR": 3, "RJ": 33, "DF": 5, "PE": 20, "PR": 18, "CE": 15, "RS": 15, "MT": 8, "BA": 20, "MS": 3, "AM": 6, "AL": 2, "SE": 6, "RN": 5, "RO": 3 }, "capitals": 18, "top_municipalities": [ { "municipality_code": "3550308", "municipality": "São Paulo", "uf": "SP", "sectors": 22, "interviews": 132 }, { "municipality_code": "3304557", "municipality": "Rio de Janeiro", "uf": "RJ", "sectors": 12, "interviews": 72 }, { "municipality_code": "3106200", "municipality": "Belo Horizonte", "uf": "MG", "sectors": 5, "interviews": 30 }, { "municipality_code": "5300108", "municipality": "Brasília", "uf": "DF", "sectors": 5, "interviews": 30 }, { "municipality_code": "2927408", "municipality": "Salvador", "uf": "BA", "sectors": 4, "interviews": 24 }, { "municipality_code": "2200400", "municipality": "Altos", "uf": "PI", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "4201208", "municipality": "Antônio Carlos", "uf": "SC", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "3200805", "municipality": "Baixo Guandu", "uf": "ES", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "2501500", "municipality": "Bananeiras", "uf": "PB", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "1501303", "municipality": "Barcarena", "uf": "PA", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "2101608", "municipality": "Barra do Corda", "uf": "MA", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "1501451", "municipality": "Belterra", "uf": "PA", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "1400100", "municipality": "Boa Vista", "uf": "RR", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "3300506", "municipality": "Bom Jardim", "uf": "RJ", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "1501782", "municipality": "Breu Branco", "uf": "PA", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 } ], "selected_sector_population": { "available": 334, "minimum": 98, "median": 568, "maximum": 2258, "below_50": 0, "below_100": 1 }, "capital_sectors": 85 }, "current": { "sectors": 334, "interviews": 2004, "municipalities": 120, "municipality_neighborhood_pairs": 318, "interviews_per_sector": { "6": 334 }, "regions": { "Nordeste": 92, "Norte": 28, "Sudeste": 141, "Centro-Oeste": 25, "Sul": 48 }, "states": { "BA": 19, "PA": 18, "RN": 6, "TO": 4, "SP": 68, "MS": 6, "MG": 36, "DF": 5, "PE": 18, "PR": 18, "RJ": 30, "CE": 14, "MA": 14, "SC": 10, "PB": 6, "MT": 6, "GO": 8, "RS": 20, "SE": 3, "RO": 3, "ES": 7, "AL": 6, "AM": 3, "PI": 6 }, 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"sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "1501402", "municipality": "Belém", "uf": "PA", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "2602902", "municipality": "Cabo de Santo Agostinho", "uf": "PE", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "4104303", "municipality": "Campo Mourão", "uf": "PR", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "3301009", "municipality": "Campos dos Goytacazes", "uf": "RJ", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "4104808", "municipality": "Cascavel", "uf": "PR", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 }, { "municipality_code": "3301306", "municipality": "Casimiro de Abreu", "uf": "RJ", "sectors": 3, "interviews": 18 } ], "selected_sector_population": { "available": 334, "minimum": 95, "median": 586, "maximum": 1428, "below_50": 0, "below_100": 1 }, "capital_sectors": 85 } }, "comparison": { "common_municipalities": 26, "municipality_jaccard_pct": 12.15, "common_municipality_codes": [ "1302603", "2111300", "2304400", "2509396", "2611606", "2704302", "2927408", "3106200", "3170107", "3304557", "3304904", "3506003", "3507605", "3509502", "3510609", "3516200", "3518800", "3548708", "3550308", "3551009", "4106902", "4205407", "4314902", "5103403", "5208707", "5300108" ], "common_exact_sectors": 0, "sector_jaccard_pct": 0.0, "common_sector_details": [], "common_municipality_neighborhoods": 5, "common_neighborhood_details": [ { "municipality": "Manaus", "uf": "AM", "neighborhood_june": "Cidade De Deus", "neighborhood_july": "Cidade De Deus", "june_sectors": [ "130260305120478" ], "july_sectors": [ "130260305120274" ], "same_exact_sector": false }, { "municipality": "Rio de Janeiro", "uf": "RJ", "neighborhood_june": "Inhoaiba", "neighborhood_july": "Inhoaíba", "june_sectors": [ "330455705230369" ], "july_sectors": [ "330455705230627" ], "same_exact_sector": false }, { "municipality": "Rio de Janeiro", "uf": "RJ", "neighborhood_june": "Realengo", "neighborhood_july": "Realengo", "june_sectors": [ "330455705370233" ], "july_sectors": [ "330455705370574" ], "same_exact_sector": false }, { "municipality": "Guarulhos", "uf": "SP", "neighborhood_june": "Bonsucesso", "neighborhood_july": "Bonsucesso", "june_sectors": [ "351880010000769" ], "july_sectors": [ "351880010000442" ], "same_exact_sector": false }, { "municipality": "São Paulo", "uf": "SP", "neighborhood_june": "Ipiranga", "neighborhood_july": "Ipiranga", "june_sectors": [ "355030834000269" ], "july_sectors": [ "355030834000227" ], "same_exact_sector": false } ], "same_neighborhood_but_different_sector": 5 }, "ibge_validation": { "retrieved": "2026-08-16", "statuses": { "population_api": 668 }, "errors": {}, "reference_file": "data/originals/censo_2022_setores_censitarios/quaest_sector_reference_2026-08-14.json" } } }