{
  "reference": "2026-10-09",
  "adapter_sha256": "60e267ca2176281ec1313c595948bf8a506e3ef7eed138b32f690542e428ef76",
  "scope": "Brasil, sem exterior, na previsão e na urna",
  "central_extra_pct": 3.8,
  "central": {
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      "lula": 45.120645128600216
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    "observed_valid_pct": {
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      "lula": 45.15608426218308
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    "multiplier": 1.0382955367321345,
    "equivalent_extra_pct": 3.8295536732134483,
    "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 7.384683242224632,
    "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
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      "lula": 44.35179330094866
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  "forecast_generated_at": "2026-10-04T01:22:40-03:00",
  "forecast_model_hash": "ae5671a1311e962442049c5d387fd4e20436f8053112e8ebfa8975a69b66a7e6",
  "forecast_published_commit": "1688f007",
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    "lula": 53722151,
    "validos": 118969906
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  "predicted_votes": {
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    "lula": 53940888.44177277,
    "validos": 119548132.09792016
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      "name": "Indecisos proporcionais às candidaturas",
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      "name": "Somente casas com reponderação PNAD",
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    },
    {
      "name": "Publicadas, mesmas casas",
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    },
    {
      "name": "Sem seleção de eleitor provável",
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      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
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  ],
  "houses": [
    {
      "id": "datafolha_2026-10-03",
      "instituto": "Datafolha",
      "campo": {
        "inicio": "2026-10-02",
        "fim": "2026-10-03"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
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      "multiplier": 0.9745398840367945,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": -2.546011596320552,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 4.994329482250981,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 45.185947580685834,
        "lula": 43.37848716547405
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    },
    {
      "id": "gerp_2026-10-02",
      "instituto": "Gerp",
      "campo": {
        "inicio": "2026-09-30",
        "fim": "2026-10-02"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
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        "lula": 42.03900681744293
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      "observed_valid_pct": {
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      "multiplier": 0.9292262209002308,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": -7.0773779099769225,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": -0.35387279051068976,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 45.30158994076771,
        "lula": 43.48950377353875
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    },
    {
      "id": "indexa_2026-09-29",
      "instituto": "Indexa/Broadcast",
      "campo": {
        "inicio": "2026-09-27",
        "fim": "2026-09-29"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
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      "observed_valid_pct": {
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      "multiplier": 1.1515548997359966,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": 15.155489973599657,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 28.751540053647084,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 44.269400448736626,
        "lula": 42.49860237543359
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    },
    {
      "id": "nexus_2026-09-27",
      "instituto": "Nexus",
      "campo": {
        "inicio": "2026-09-25",
        "fim": "2026-09-27"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
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      "observed_valid_pct": {
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      "multiplier": 1.1660793776449254,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": 16.60793776449254,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 37.422396811425784,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 42.97487103622827,
        "lula": 41.25585478437002
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    },
    {
      "id": "palver_2026-10-03",
      "instituto": "Palver",
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        "inicio": "2026-09-30",
        "fim": "2026-10-03"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
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      "observed_valid_pct": {
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        "lula": 45.15608426218308
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      "multiplier": 0.9684971097879382,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": -3.1502890212061763,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 1.9184986760120593,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 45.768954877365175,
        "lula": 43.93817387982753
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    },
    {
      "id": "poderdata_2026-10-02",
      "instituto": "PoderData",
      "campo": {
        "inicio": "2026-09-30",
        "fim": "2026-10-02"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 45.26784522618164,
        "lula": 44.301809082404674
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      "observed_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 47.03761218404258,
        "lula": 45.15608426218308
      },
      "multiplier": 1.0194375613134647,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": 1.9437561313464746,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 7.381739296330814,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 45.745231048552775,
        "lula": 43.91539901598701
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    },
    {
      "id": "quaest_2026-10-03",
      "instituto": "Quaest",
      "campo": {
        "inicio": "2026-10-02",
        "fim": "2026-10-03"
      },
      "predicted_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 43.04045447499789,
        "lula": 46.85620467865771
      },
      "observed_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 47.03761218404258,
        "lula": 45.15608426218308
      },
      "multiplier": 1.13401618234828,
      "equivalent_extra_pct": 13.401618234827994,
      "flavio_vs_all_others_pct": 17.53504473632843,
      "after_multiplier_valid_pct": {
        "flavio": 46.14677189333509,
        "lula": 44.30087802692733
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    }
  ],
  "house_range_pct": [
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    16.60793776449254
  ],
  "nexus_2t_base_ratio": 1.0001994998380006,
  "nexus_1t_base_ratio": 1.0003065671902185,
  "sources_sha256": {
    "docs/assets/predicao_2026_1T_presidente.json": "b0e9261020a48b16e3103ec8e4f77bc93ee69b5245e1bea82dd9382997d6bacc",
    "analysis/apuracao_2026/dados/presidente.json": "0bb01ddb79108500a55987b5be1fc437f38ef5f88509ec846a00df8dd7853788",
    "first_round_mean": "d05c83679407951f1af14a20a531cd09857b5361f9c4a17c07a28615d7801d8e"
  },
  "formula": "100 × [(votos F / votos L na urna) / (votos F / votos L na predição) − 1]",
  "decision": "Referência compartilhada: resíduo equivalente da predição publicada antes da eleição, arredondado a uma casa decimal. O transporte de +3,8% ao 2T é hipótese explícita, não taxa de presença medida ou estimador validado.",
  "limits": "O resíduo mistura comparecimento, erro de pesquisa, voto útil, indecisos e escolhas finais. Não identifica a presença dos que preferiam cada candidato. Ajustar F/L não recompõe todas as candidaturas. Casas e âncoras dão números diferentes; sua faixa não é IC. As pesquisas pós-urna podem já absorver parte do erro anterior, portanto o transporte pode repetir esse ajuste. Zero permanece alternativa. A incerteza deste transporte não entra automaticamente no Monte Carlo.",
  "method_source": "https://gking.harvard.edu/publication/ecological-regression-with-partial-identification/"
}