{ "eleicao": "2026-10-04", "corte_pesquisas": "2026-10-03", "cenario_renda": "pessoas16_efetivo", "regra": "Média móvel de 7 dias pela divulgação (D−6 a D), última onda por instituto, peso igual. Somente casas com cruzamento de renda do agregador principal; publicado e PNAD usam as mesmas ondas. Cada vetor completo de candidaturas é normalizado em válidos antes da média; indecisos e branco/nulo ficam fora, sem transferência ou ajuste de comparecimento.", "limite": "Histórico recalculado com os documentos hoje disponíveis, sem usar a urna nos cálculos. As candidaturas da cédula variam nas ondas antigas; demais inclui todas além de Flávio e Lula. PNAD troca somente a margem de renda; nomes sem cruzamento mantêm o publicado. Resíduos negativos são truncados antes da normalização e registrados na auditoria. Não é arquivo de previsões publicadas em cada data.", "excluidas": [], "serie": [ {"data": "2026-05-05", "n_institutos": 1, "ondas": ["realtime_2026-05-04"], "publicado": {"flavio": 38.20224719101124, "lula": 44.943820224719104, "demais": 16.853932584269657}, "pnad": {"flavio": 38.60845082912122, "lula": 42.918107652744524, "demais": 18.47344151813426}}, {"data": "2026-05-06", "n_institutos": 1, "ondas": ["realtime_2026-05-04"], "publicado": {"flavio": 38.20224719101124, "lula": 44.943820224719104, "demais": 16.853932584269657}, "pnad": {"flavio": 38.60845082912122, "lula": 42.918107652744524, "demais": 18.47344151813426}}, {"data": "2026-05-07", "n_institutos": 1, "ondas": ["realtime_2026-05-04"], "publicado": {"flavio": 38.20224719101124, "lula": 44.943820224719104, "demais": 16.853932584269657}, "pnad": {"flavio": 38.60845082912122, "lula": 42.918107652744524, "demais": 18.47344151813426}}, {"data": "2026-05-08", "n_institutos": 1, "ondas": ["realtime_2026-05-04"], "publicado": 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